Blake Redden's Preview for Cranbourne

Thu, 17 Jan 2019

Tonight's Cranbourne program serves up a number of promising horses coming through the grades. We're working with seven races and while we won't be going overboard in terms of the number of ways we're playing the card, the value option looks pretty hard to beat. Similarly, our money race looks a pretty safe attack and from there we will get aggressive through our Normal Quaddie and also the Early Quaddie.

Track information

TOP 5
Circumference: 946m, Sprint Lane: Yes, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Emma Stewart, Leading Driver: Greg Sugars

The Moral

Race 7 - No.6 Mister Ohanzee

This bloke has been terrific on Aussie soil and finds a winnable race tonight.



Best Value ($30 Win)
R3 No.1 - Hokonui Ben$5*
I thought this bloke was actually quite serviceable two starts back and he went on to run a big race in this grade again last time. He gets the draw again and looks over the odds tonight.
Money Race
R7 $45 Worth Of Flexi Trifectas
Mister Ohanzee (6) is going to start pretty short and should win so with Smart Little Shard (4) a pretty honest horse, we can take trifectas with them to dominate the top end of trifectas.
6/4/3,5. $30 gets 1500%
6/3,5/4. $15 gets 750%
Quaddie ($20 Flexi Early Quaddie + $75 Worth Of Flexi Normal Quaddies)
4/2/1,2,5,6,7/6.$30 gets 600%
4/6/1,2,5,6,7/6.$15 gets 300%
4/1/1,2,5,6,7/6.$10 gets 200%
1,3,7/2/1,2,5,6,7/6.$20 gets 133.33%

SPEEDMAPS

R1

DECRON PACE

1


COME ON ELVIS

3


SOCIAL MEDIA

7


JUST SAY GO NZ

8


ALL MY SAVINGS

2


MODERN CHIC

4


ONE TUFF NUT

5


BRITISH GENERAL

6


LITTLE SAFARI

9


DANGEROUS WOMEN

10


THE THUG NZ

R2

SBG ACCOUNTANTS & BUSINESS ADVISORS PACE

1


MIDNIGHT RATTLER

6


ILLAWONG PHILLIPA

7


SHESALWAYSDREAMING

8


DAYBREAK DRAMA

2


CHILDERS ROAD

3


LADY FLORA

4


NEVADA JANE

5


AUTUMN STORM

R3

WOODLANDS STUD CLAIMING PACE

1


HOKONUI BEN NZ

2


ALL I CAN BE

3


MOHEGAN SUN

4


OUR SIR IVANHOE

5


FINAL OVER NZ

6


CLASSY WESTERN

R4

HYLAND HARNESS COLOURS PACE

1


OZZIE MAJOR

2


FEEL THE RHYTHM

4


SUMTHIN SPECIAL NZ

5


RUN MYLES RUN

3


WHITECLIFF CHAPEL NZ

6


SHE CAN ROCK

7


FLYIN CIRCLES NZ

R5

HYGAIN PACE

1


MANGANELLO

2


MAESTRO BELLINI

3


DANMAN

4


LAST FLIGHT IN NZ

5


HURRICANE STRIDE NZ

6


JOE NIEN

R6

SEELITE WINDOWS & DOORS 3YO PACE

1


HECTOR MACRAY

2


FAMOUS THREE

3


SPEEDY LEO

4


HOLY BASIL NZ

5


STRONGNBOLD

6


SAHARA TIGER

7


MOTA MATE

R7

BLUE HILLS RISE PACE

1


PRIDDY EASY

3


MELPARK ALEXA

5


KOTARE MAHDI NZ

2


BLISSFULL MIND

4


SMART LITTLE SHARD

6


MISTER OHANZEE

BET ALL RACES

Blake Redden Tips - All Races

R1

Selections No.JUST SAY GO (7), THE THUG (10), BRITISH GENERAL (5), SOCIAL MEDIA (3).
Suggested Bet No.JUST SAY GO (7) To Win.$*
OVERVIEW: JUST SAY GO (7) showed good gate speed when able to drop onto the pegs at his first start in Victoria and he finds a front row devoid of early toe so if he can scoot across early, then he should be hard to beat. THE THUG (10) is ticking over well and if there is some early speed in the race he will be well suited coming with one sweeping run. BRITISH GENERAL (5) has been competing in stronger races so he’s right in this if he can land a good spot in transit. SOCIAL MEDIA (3) might be able to run the gate and is an each-way chance if first to the pegs while LITTLE SAFARI (6) and COME ON ELVIS (1) are options for wider trifectas or first fours.

EARLY SPEED: 7 (Potential leader) + 3

RATINGS: 7/ 10/ 5/ 3/ 6/ 1/ 8/ 9/ 4.

R2

Selections No.LADY FLORA (3), SHESALWAYSDREAMING (7), AUTUMN STORM (5), MIDNIGHT RATTLER (1).
Suggested Bet No.LADY FLORA (3) To Win.$*
OVERVIEW: LADY FLORA (3) is outside of the draw after Maryborough on Monday but she still won there and made it two on the bounce. This is another suitable race so while she might need a few things to go right early, she looks the horse to beat. SHESALWAYSDREAMING (7) may well be able to stay in front of her major rival early now and if that’s the case then she becomes the clear and obvious threat. AUTUMN STORM (5) is hard to line-up on debut but it wouldn’t shock to see him in the thick of things. MIDNIGHT RATTLER (1) gets the draw and is dropping sharply in grade so is the other trifecta consideration.

EARLY SPEED: 7 (Potential leader) + 3,6

RATINGS: 3/ 7/ 5/ 1/ 4/ 6/ 2/ 8.

R3

Selections No.HOKOBUI BEN (1), ALL I CAN BE (2),
Suggested Bet No.HOKONUI BEN (1) To Win.$*
OVERVIEW: HOKOBUI BEN (1) was sent round an outsider in a claimer at Melton last weekend but he led and gave a pretty good kick to beat home many of his rivals tonight. He gets similar conditions tonight so it’s hard to see why he won’t run another ripper race. ALL I CAN BE (2) has a decision to make early but if he drops straight on to the polemarkers back, he’d be a huge threat via the passing lane.  OUR SIR IVANHOE (4) and CLASSY WESTERN (6) were both running on at the end last time and if there’s enough speed early they’ll surely be thereabouts again while FINAL OVER (5) is the other one for value punters.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Likely leader) + 2 OUR SIR IVANHOE (4), CLASSY WESTERN (6).

RATINGS: 1/ 2/ 4/ 6/ 5/ 3.

R4

Selections No.SUMTHIN SPECIAL (4), WHITECLIFF CHAPEL (3), OZZIE MAJOR (1), FLYIN CIRCLES (7).
Suggested Bet No.Flexi Boxed Trifecta 1,3,4,7 for $20 gets 83.33%.$*
OVERVIEW: SUMTHIN SPECIAL (4) has been most impressive in her past two wins and if she does lead early doors then she has to be the one to beat. WHITECLIFF CHAPEL (3) is coming off a decent break but she showed ability in New Zealand and she does look well placed tonight.  OZZIE MAJOR (1) finds an easier race so wouldn’t totally shock while FLYIN CIRCLES (7) and SHE CAN ROCK (6) are next best.

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Potential leader) + 1,3,7?

RATINGS: 4/ 3/ 1/ 7/ 6/ 2/ 5.

R5

Selections No.MAESTRO BELLINI (2), JOE NIEN (6), MANGANELLO (1), DANMAN (3).
Suggested Bet No.Flexi Trifecta 2/1,6/1,3,6 for $20 gets 500%.$*
OVERVIEW: MAESTRO BELLINI (2) had to work hard early before handing over on Bendigo Cup night and all things considered his run wasn’t poor. If he’s able to get the lead with little resistance then he’ll likely get a breather and prove tough to catch.  JOE NIEN (6) is clearly still an untapped talent and while he hasn’t been done any favours by the barriers, he might still be good enough to win the race regardless of where he lands. MANGANELLO (1) gets the ideal draw if he can find his best form while DANMAN (3) is honest and goes into wider multiples on that score alone.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Likely leader) + 1

RATINGS: 2/ 6/ 1/ 3/ 4/ 5.

R6

Selections No.HOLY BASIL (4), STRONGNBOLD (5), FAMOUS THREE (2), SAHARA TIGER (6).
Suggested Bet No.Flexi Trifecta 2,4,5/2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6 for $20 gets 74.07%.$*
OVERVIEW: HOLY BASIL (4) is a three-year-old gelding by Changeover who debuts tonight. He trialled on a couple of occasions at Melton recently under his own steam and looked a nice horse in the making and combine that with the fact there was a touch of market support in All-In markets for the Victoria Derby and get has to get the nod here. STRONGNBOLD (5) turned up in Victoria for a hear of the Vicbred Super Series but he clearly wasn’t at his best there. He was well beaten in a recent Melton trial but when you consider Centenario and Hurricane Harley ran the quinella, his effort was actually quite sound. FAMOUS THREE (2) is a largely unknown commodity but has to be kept safe if there is market support while SAHARA TIGER (6) is the other worth throwing into wider Quaddies with HECTOR MACRAY (1) a first four option.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Potential leader) + 1,4? 5?

RATINGS: 4/ 5/ 2/ 6/ 1/ 7/ 3.

R7

Selections No.MISTER OHANZEE (6), SMART LITTLE SHARD (4), MELPARK ALEX (3), KOTARE MAHDI (5).
Suggested Bet No.Flexi Trifecta 6/3,4/3,4,5 for $20 gets 500%.$*
OVERVIEW: MISTER OHANZEE (6) has been able to work on to the lead in all three Australian starts and while it’s a little unclear, there’s every chance he will roll across early and assume a lamp-lighting role again. He was run down only by Share The Road last time and they gapped the rest so that form will stand up here and on face value it’s hard to see him being beaten. SMART LITTLE SHARD (4) may not have the gate speed to go with them early but he is pretty strong so he looms as key for trifectas. Add MELPARK ALEXA (3) to that conversation given she should lead and have options early. KOTARE MAHDI (5) should be making ground at the end and is arguably the only other worth consideration for multiples.

EARLY SPEED: 3 (Likely leader, hand-up?) + 1,6

RATINGS: 6/ 4/ 3/ 5/ 2/ 1.

*Prices are indicative and subject to change. Visit tab.com.au to see latest prices
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