Jason Bonnington's Preview for Tabcorp Park

Sat, 05 Sep 2015

Despite missing the Quad we snuck away with a small profit at Kilmore last night and I'm very confident that my last Game Plan before a short sabbatical will be a profitable one @ HQ tonight. I'm banking on 1 Best Bet, 2 Value Bets, 1 Roughie, 3 Money Races & both the early & standard Quads yielding dividends for us this evening and if everything goes to plan we'll be kicking off the 2015/16 term with some genuinely awesome results.

Track information


TOP 5
Circumference: 1040m
Sprint Lane: Yes
Leader's win:
Leading Trainer:
Leading Driver:

The Moral

Race 8 - No. 4 Philadelphia Man

This fellow was awesome last prep but he looks even better now and from the advantageous gate he will lead or breeze & prove too strong tonight.

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Take On

Race 10 - No. 7 My Elusive Dream

I'm not sure how short this guy will start but I've seen him marked favourite in some markets and I'm not convinced that should be the case.




Best Bet(s) - $35 Win
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R6 No.13 - Changing Code$3.5*
The draw is obviously awful but what I've seen from this guy in his last two starts has won me over quick smart and the snap speed he possesses should negate the margin he'll spot the leaders in the run. Losing Macterra Lad from the race hasn't hurt much either!
Best Value - $10 Win $20 Place
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R5 No.8 - Lierre Noir$6.5*
This mare is perpetually underrated but she is coming off a magnificent season and with the likelihood she'll get the gun run behind probable leader Desdon Murruffy I think she'll fill a hole at least and maybe even win.
R6 No.8 - Stunning Grin$6.5*
I am very keen on Changing Code in this race but I've been following this bloke all preparation & it would half break my heart if he won without me on. So I'm not going to let that happen!
Best Roughie(s) - $5 Win $15 Place
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R5 No.12 - Manuka Man$9*
I'm not 100% sure where this bloke is at but I'm willing to take him on trust here because when he is on song he's a very talented animal & there's just a little feeling that he'll start at silly odds.
Money Race(s)
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R4 $45 Flexi Trifecta
There's not a lot between the three big guns here (Maywyns Storm, Electric Ollie & Inky Cullen) so I'm hoping they fill at least the top two possie and that the fave gets rolled. Some value in third place from Mister Douglas or Braemoor also wouldn't go astray.
5,6,9/ 5,6,9/ 1,5,6,8,9 $45 gets 250%
R7 $80 Flexi Trifectas
This looks a match race between consistency and draw (Savannah Jay Jay) and outright talent (Sun Of Sonoko). One of the should win - we hope the latter - while Jusamirel is the other key runner for sure.
1,9/ 1,9,10/ 1,9,10 $40 gets 1000%
1,9/ 1,9,10/ 3,5,6,7,11 $40 gets 200%
R8 $110 Flexi First 4's
This is the best betting race of the night. The reason being that Philadelphia Man should certainly win and if he gets the lead then the next two best horses engaged - Franco Ledger & Flaming Flutter - both might miss a place, making multiple dividends go through the roof!
4/ 1,8/ 1,5,6,8/ 1,5,6,8 $64 gets 533.33%
4/ 1,8/ 1,5,6,8/ 3,7 $18 gets 150%
4/ 5,6/ 1,5,6,8/ 1,5,6,8 $24 gets 200%
4/ 5,6/ 1,5,6,8/ 3,7 $4 gets 33.33%
EQ
Early Quaddie(s) - $120 EARLY Quad & $100 Quad
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5,10/ 9/ 10/ 5,6,9$30 gets 500%
5,10/ 9/ 5,9/ 5,6,9$30 gets 250%
5,10/ 3,6,8,10/ 10/ 5,6,9$60 gets 250%
Quaddie(s) - $120 EARLY Quad & $100 Quad
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2,13/ 13/ 1,9/ 4$44 gets 1100%
2,13/ 13/ 10/ 4$4 gets 200%
2,13/ 8/ 1,9/ 4$16 gets 400%
2,13/ 3,5,10/ 1,9/ 4$24 gets 200%
8,11,12/ 13/ 1,9/ 4$12 gets 200%

*Prices are indicative and subject to change. Visit tab.com.au to see latest prices