Blake Redden's Preview for Ballarat

Fri, 25 May 2018

Tonight kicks off what is a big weekend in the trots with all eyes on Maori Time in the Elitlopp on Sunday. We've also got a strong Metro card to work through tomorrow night but first attention turns to Ballarat tonight. We've got a pretty short card for a Friday night but amongst the eight races you couldn't ask for much more as a punter. We'll be settling in to two best bets, a belter value option, a money race and then a cheeky turn at both the Early and the Normal Quaddies.

Track information

TOP 5
Circumference: 1000m, Sprint Lane: No, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Emma Stewart, Leading Driver: Chris Alford


The Moral

Race 1 - No.2 Reils

This fella is incredibly well-suited back to the mobile tonight and in a race which looks his, he is the one for the night.

 BET NOW

Take On

Race 7 - No.8 Tornado Valley

I've got plenty of respect for this guy and you could build an argument that a return to the mobile and middle trip will be in his favour but he's worth risking




Blake Redden Tips - All Races

R1

BET NOW
Selections REILS (2), DYNAMIC LEGACY (9), ALL OVER THE STARS (5), EOGHAN OMAILLE (6).
Suggested Bet  Flexi Trifecta 2/5,6,9/5,6,9,10,11 for $20 gets 167%.
OVERVIEW: REILS (2) has been off handicaps at his past few but all his runs have been sound and he begins like a rocket from the mobile so provided he leads as expected, he should be incredibly hard to run down. DYNAMIC LEGACY (9) continues to fly under the radar but if he reproduces all of his recent form then he’ll run a cheeky race. ALL OVER THE STARS (5) is pretty hard to line—up after galling first time out in Aus but he at least stays under notice. EOGHAN OMAILLE (6) is on the next level with fellow value hopes VALSUE (11) and ZOOMALONG DREAMER (10).

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Likely leader) + 1,5,6

RATINGS: 2/ 9/ 5/ 6/ 11/ 10/ 3/ 4/ 7/ 8/ 1.

R2

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Selections SUCCESS COUNTS (10), ANYWHERE HUGO (11), IMPERIAL WHIZ (8), MASCOTT (2).
Suggested Bet SUCCESS COUNTS (10) To Win.
OVERVIEW: SUCCESS COUNTS (10) trialled particularly well on a couple of occasions before making a mess of his Aussie debut but from the trailing draw he will get the chance to balance up early and from there, he can make his move and put some distance between himself and his main rival. ANYWHERE HUGO (11) is right in the top bracket of three-year-old trotters when he puts his best foot forward but he is prone to errors so that’s the risk you take. IMPERIAL WHIZ (8) may need luck from inside the second row but he’s not totally out of it while MASCOTT (2), SEVERE STORM (6) and PARISIAN OPERA (3) are the wider chances with luck.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Likely leader) + 1,3? 7?

RATINGS: 10/ 11/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 3/ 4/ 9/ 1/ 7/ 5.

R3

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Selections TOPSIES DELIGHT (9), NICABIT (1), NATS A CHRISTIAN (5), SAVIOUR CLARE (8).
Suggested Bet TOPSIES DELIGHT (9) To Win.
OVERVIEW: TOPSIES DELIGHT (9) has bumped into two pretty strong races since spearing clear at Bendigo three back and she looks well suited in a tricky little race. NICABIT (1) is still a largely unknown commodity but she has the draw to be competitive over the sprint trip. NATS A CHRISTIAN (5) ran a bottler first-up behind Cullen Reign and along with her stablemate SAVIOUR CLARE (8), they must both be considered at least Early Quaddie threats. OUTBACK SHADOW (6) comes out of a race behind Jackierabbit last time and is the other for multiples.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Potential leader) + 5,6

RATINGS: 9/ 1/ 5/ 8/ 6/ 10/ 4/ 2/ 3/ 7.

R4

BET NOW
Selections UNDALINER (6), OUR EDWARDS LEWIS (4), APOLLON (5),  LICK MY LIPS (2).
Suggested Bet UNDALINER (6) To Win.
OVERVIEW: UNDALINER (6) chased Rebeccas Copy at Charlton pretty admirably and while there is speed underneath him, his best form would still put him right in the finish. OUR EDWARDS LEWIS (4) is ready to win based on his narrow last start defeat however APOLLON (5) should be better for the first-up run and LICK MY LIPS (2) has shown speed at the trials. DONTSHOWYOURACES (8) is the next best.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Potential leader) + 2,4,5?

RATINGS: 6/ 4/ 5/ 2/ 8/ 7/ 1/ 3.

R5

BET NOW
Selections KEAYANG DA VINCI (8), OUR SIR OLIVER (5), TOP THE ACE (7), HOLLYS MISS MOLLY (6).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 8/5,7/4,5,6,7 for $20 gets 333%.
OVERVIEW: KEAYANG DA VINCI (8) admittedly led last time but he cruised away from his rivals like a good horses and his effort to park out and stick with Boom Time two starts back was similarly good. The second row is no spoil but he’s at the peak of his powers right now. OUR SIR OLIVER (5) has been blistering out in his last couple and if he can find the top again and get a soft section somewhere, he’ll have something left in the locker.  TOP THE ACE (7) was huge at Stawell last time out but there are plenty of others that could play a role including HOLLYS MISS MOLLY (6), THE HIGH ROLLER (4) and even CHRISTMAS JOLT (3).

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Potential leader) + 1,2,3? 5

RATINGS: 8/ 5/ 7/ 6/ 4/ 3/ 2/ 1.

R6

BET NOW
Selections DUPLICATED (1), TAM MAJOR (8), BRAEVIEW BONDI (6), JOE NIEN (7).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 1/8/4,6,7 for $20 gets 666.67%.
OVERVIEW: DUPLICATED (1) was most impressive in an easier race on Aussie debut when ripping around to lead mid-race and then burning home in 26.6. From the inside he’ll only need to hold his rivals wide early to be zooming home in similar fashion. TAM MAJOR (8) is somewhat awkwardly placed but if he trails through the likely favourite then he won’t run worse than second but he probably can’t win either.  BRAEVIEW BONDI (6) heads the rest but JOE NIEN (7) has to be kept safe off a soft trip. AMERICAN ZEST (4) and VAPAR JACK (2) go into the back end of first fours.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Likely leader) + 2,4,6?

RATINGS: 1/ 8/ 6/ 7/ 4/ 2/ 5/ 3.

R7

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Selections INTO THE UNKNOWN (3), TORNADO VALLEY (8), TOUGH MONARCH (5), FABRICATION (9).
Suggested Bet INTO THE UNKNOWN (3) Each Way.
OVERVIEW: INTO THE UNKNOWN (3) has proven in the last six months she’s not far off the very best and her second to TORNADO VALLEY (8) in the Bruce Skeggs two starts back is a good indicator that if things work out in the run, she’s capable of turning the favourites over. TORNADO VALLEY (8) had his winning run ended last time but back to the middle trip may well suit and he wasn’t disgraced last time. TOUGH MONARCH (5) showed he has all sorts of talent when leading and winning at Shepparton two back so he’s the other Quaddie option while FABRICATION (9), GLENFERRIE BURN (7) and FATHER CHRISTMAS (6) are all place options.

EARLY SPEED:  5 (Potential leader) + 1,4,6?

RATINGS: 3/ 8/ 5/ 9/ 7/ 6/ 2/ 4/ 1.

R8

BET NOW
Selections COURAGEOUS AFFAIR (5), VANDANTA (2), THE KIWI WAY (6), BYALLA BOY (1).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 2,5/2,5,6/1,2,5,6,7 for $20 gets 167%.
OVERVIEW: COURAGEOUS AFFAIR (5) stepped up to take on a heat of the Vic Oaks and her run was quite OK all things considered. Her two wins prior this time in were both meritorious and even if she’s forced to park out tonight, she still has to rate on top. VANDANTA (2) comes through a heat and final series behind San Domino and he should enjoy the drop in grade here. THE KIWI WAY (6) is racing well enough to be a factor while first four chances must go to BYALLA BOY (1) and CLASSIC MAKER (7).

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Potential leader) + 2,3,5

RATINGS: 5/ 2/ 6/ 1/ 7/ 4/ 3.

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