Blake Redden's Preview for Yarra Valley

Mon, 15 Oct 2018

Today's Game Plan for Yarra Valley is quite clearly more expansive than your day-to-day that we've become used to. That said, creating a plan to punt on any given day is always taken in isolation and this does look a cracking card for value. I've settled on two best bets at better than even money along with three separate value runners who should all be over their true odds. We'll also have a dig at both the Early and Normal Quaddie and hopefully it's a profitable day in wine country.

Track information

TOP 5
Circumference: 1000m, Sprint Lane: Yes, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Andy Gath, Leading Driver: Chris Alford


The Moral

Race 6 - No.9 My Cash

This mare resumes from a break and she looked like a star in the making last time in so she should be able to handle her rivals here.

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Take On

Race 2 - No.2 Fairest Fella

I thought this race was pretty even so to see this bloke come up odds-on was somewhat of a surprise so we're going to risk him through Early Quads.




Blake Redden Tips - All Races

R1

BET NOW
Selections GREG THE GREAT (3), WHATTALOTAFRAY (7), ZOOM ALONG DREAMER (1), LORD LOHKI (6).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 3/7/1,6 for $20 gets 1000%.
OVERVIEW: GREG THE GREAT (3) resumes of a couple of nice trial wins and despite being a winner of just one race from his 28 tries, he has always shaped as a promising horse and he finds the right race to kick off his campaign with a win. WHATTALOTAFRAY (7) was well beaten but did finish third in a strong form race last time and she drops pretty sharply in grade for this so she’s a clear knockout chance if you want to take on the favourite. ZOOM ALONG DREAMER (1) is well suited from the draw and the only other key player in trifectas but LORD LOHKI (6) is worth thought if you are playing wider.

EARLY SPEED:  3 (Likely leader) + 1

RATINGS: 3/ 7/ 1/ 6/ 4/ 2/ 5.

R2

BET NOW
Selections ARTIFLASH (7), FOREVER AND A DAY (4), HAYJOSHANDCO (8), BLUE CHIPPED (1).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 4,7/4,7,8/1,4,6,7,8 for $20 gets 167%.
OVERVIEW: ARTIFLASH (7) was used up early last time and finished midfield in a stronger race than this so while it’s unclear where he will be in transit after 250 metres, he may still have a little edge on his rivals. FOREVER AND A DAY (4) may choose to use his gate speed today but regardless based on his win two back he’d be in the mix here while HAYJOSHANDCO (8), BLUE CHIPPED (1), and WINKN NOD (6) are all options for value players.

EARLY SPEED:  1 (Potential leader) + 2,4

RATINGS: 7/ 4/ 8/ 1/ 6/ 3/ 2/ 5.

R3

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Selections SOLID AS A ROCK (6), FORTY THIEVES (4), SPINNERS BOY (2), CARLOAD (7).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 6/4/2,7 for $20 gets 1000%.
OVERVIEW: SOLID AS A ROCK (6) chased home Wrappers Delight in the Breeders Crown last time and after a freshen up he can sit almost anywhere in the small field tonight and be the one to beat. FORTY THIEVES (4) is your early speedster and he is racing well so if he finds the pegs he has to be the measuring stick to a large degree. SPINNERS BOY (2) was a ripper run when resuming and he’ll only improve into this so he must go into Early Quaddies while CARLOAD (7) is an obvious fourth pegger with MELCHOIR (3) a wider first four option.

EARLY SPEED:  4 (Likely leader) + 7?

RATINGS: 6/ 4/ 2/ 7/ 3/ 5/ 1.

R4

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Selections TARZALI (8), ARGGGHHH (6), SHARING THE LOVE (5), BAO NIEN (1).
Suggested Bet TARZALI (8) To Win.
OVERVIEW: TARZALI (8) comes through a strong form race first up when rolling Major Mucha and she was handled last time by a pretty smart horse in Victoria Brew so while the inside of the second row could be a blessing or a curse early, she’s got plenty of upside and should be in the finish. ARGGGHHH (6) was a solid but not spectacular winner when resuming at a short price at Cranbourne. That said, he should improve off the run and he was a big winner of the APG consolation earlier this year so he has the ability. SHARING THE LOVE (5) has had to be kept awake in a couple of recent Melton trials but she has won both and found under persuasion so she must be kept safe on debut while BAO NIEN (1) is an unknown commodity in many respects and MAJOR CRISIS (7) is the next best along with his stablemate.

EARLY SPEED:  5 (Potential leader) + 1? 2? 4, 6?

RATINGS: 8/ 5/ 6/ 1/ 7/ 9/ 3/ 4/ 2.

R5

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Selections CHRISTIAN MAJOR (4), EMILIANA (6), HEZA CRACKER (1), FIRENGLOW (3).
Suggested Bet CHRISTIAN MAJOR (4) To Win.
OVERVIEW: CHRISTIAN MAJOR (4) comes out of an unsuitable race behind Makes Every Scents last time but his win at Melton when breaking his Metro Maiden was strong so that’s good enough to give him the nod in a country front race here. EMILIANA (6) is a clear class runner and while the draw isn’t ideal, he has the services of Chris Alford which keeps him right in the race. HEZA CRACKER (1) gets his chance from the draw while FIRENGLOW (3)and MYGOLDENGRINNER (2) are next best.

EARLY SPEED:  1 (Likely leader) + 2,3,6?

RATINGS: 4/ 6/ 1/ 3/ 2/ 7/ 5.

R6

BET NOW
Selections MY CASH (9), MAESTRO BELLINI (7), ROCKNROLL GOLD (6), REGAL CHEVAL (8).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 9/7/4,6,8 for $20 gets 666.67%.
OVERVIEW: MY CASH (9) was given a quiet time but zipped home over the top of Group 1 trotter Tornado Valley at the Melton trials last week and given what she did in two starts on Aussie shores prior to locking wheels at Mildura; she must be considered a horse of much promise. MAESTRO BELLINI (7) is building towards a win and he chased home Abridged valiantly in town last time so he looms the only realistic threat. ROCKNROLL GOLD (6) is going well so must go into trifectas along with at least REGAL CHEVAL (8) and PLAYING ARKABELLA (4).

EARLY SPEED:  4 (Potential leader) + 1,2,7

RATINGS: 9/ 7/ 6/ 8/ 4/ 5/ 2/ 3/ 1.

R7

BET NOW
Selections COLDPLAY ROAD (1), WITH GUSTO (9), JODAN (8), HOSIER LANE (2).
Suggested Bet COLDPLAY ROAD (1) To Win.
OVERVIEW: COLDPLAY ROAD (1) has been running on at each of his first three runs this campaign and he looks well placed to breakthrough here. The question mark is whether he gets crossed by ASTRONAUT (5) early and then that horse decides to hand-up to a rival such as FIRE UP FRANCO (6) but if that mini-doomsday scenario doesn’t unfold, COLDPLAY ROAD (1) must be the horse to beat and he might still be from three poles. WITH GUSTO (9) we will learn more about exactly where this bloke is at after Saturday night but even from the second row he’s racing to well to not include. JODAN (8) would be a serious threat if the polemarker can muster to lead early but regardless he’ll be running on while HOSIER LANE (2), FIRE UP FRANCO (6) and ASTRONAUT (5) round out any saver Quaddie options.

EARLY SPEED:  1,5,6

RATINGS: 1/ 9/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 5/ 10/ 4/ 3/ 7/ 11.

R8

BET NOW
Selections DEAREST (1), BEACH SKIPPER (8), MOST HAPPY CULLEN (11), MELPARK ALEXA (3).
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta 1/8/3,4,11 for $20 gets 666.67%.
OVERVIEW: DEAREST (1) has plenty in her favour today. She should have the speed to hold the early charge of MELPARK ALEXA (3) and from that point she’ll likely dictate terms and be hard to run down. BEACH SKIPPER (8) will be in prime position to strike via the sprint lane if the polemarker does hold-up but also cop some pressure early. MOST HAPPY CULLEN (11) is arguably the class runner but the draw has made it a tough task while MELPARK ALEXA (3) comes right into play if she’s able to lead and OUR LADY MADONNA (4) also goes into first fours.

EARLY SPEED:  1 (Likely leader) + 3

RATINGS: 1/ 8/ 11/ 3/ 4/ 10/ 7/ 5/ 9/ 2.

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