Jason Bonnington's Preview for Ballarat

Sat, 18 Jan 2020

The Summer of Glory is finally here and is has never felt bigger with the Oaks heats joining the Derby heats over a traditional long trip to supplement another magnificent addition of the Ballarat Cup. Heat night cards are always a minefield and I expected to play very conservatively with this Game Plan but as it's turned out I'm having a genuine dip. Self Assured and Be Happy Mach have the biggest roles to play here but Pacifico Dream is pretty important as well. Regardless of how the night plays out from a punting perspective you should sit back, soak it in and just relish watching such brilliant horseflesh take to the track tonight.

Track information

Circumference: 1000m, Sprint Lane: No, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Emma Stewart, Leading Driver: Chris Alford

The Moral

Race 2 - No. 6 Maajida

She's first up and it's her first time over the long trip but by every other measure this girl looks a gilt-edged lock.


Take On

Race 4 - No. 2 Keayang Livana

There are a few I'd risk tonight but this girl is one; she's just too quirky and inexperienced to be as short as she is a in a pretty strong affair.

Best Bet(s) - $40 Win
R3 No.7 - Pacifico Dream$4*
Top fluc is gone for this fellow but he has a big tactical advantage here as he looks the leader despite his gate seven draw. If he goes as well as he did first up last prep and stays 2710m, I say he wins.
R7 No.8 - Self Assured$2.5*
This fellow is the best horse racing in Australasia right now and perhaps the only runner engaged in tonight's Cup that can do work if required and still win. Forget the awkward alley; he is the one.
R8 No.10 - Be Happy Mach$2.1*
Forget all the queries and quandaries about the Kiwis. This guy is an absolute monster and unless the NZ horses are outstanding - and I'm not sure they are - then
Best Value - $15 Each Way
R4 No.7 - Bullion Lady$7.5*
I've always had a n opinion of this mare and the way she won at Bendigo last start she has a class edge on these. It's also not totally fanciful that she could find the front.
Best Roughie(s) - $20 Place
R6 No.9 - Hesty$61*
This bloke has already raced over a long journey well and maps to be 3 poles behind two very nice horse. $6 the drum seems overs to me.
Money Race(s)
R2 $60 Flexi Trifecta
Maajida looks to have this race totally under control but as is so often the case with these races we really need value in the bronze medal role.
6/ 8,10/ 2,4,8,10,11 $60 gets 750%
R5 $60 Flexi Trifectas
Tornado Valley has the tactical advantage here from his draw and should win with the three other big guns fighting out the minors.
9/ 8,10,11/ 8,10,11 $42 gets 700%
9/ 8,10,11/ 3,4,7 $18 gets 200%
R6 $60 Flexi First Fours
Governor Jujon should lead and win this middle Derby heat with his only threats being Gee Smith and Mirragon but it would be very helpful and far from unexpected if Hesty could just run third or fourth.
2/ 1,6/ 1,3,6,7,9/ 1,3,6,7,9 $48 gets 200%
1,6/ 2/ 1,3,6,7,9/ 1,3,6,7,9 $12 gets 50%
Early Quaddie(s) - $100 EARLY Quads & $130 DECOQuads
6/ 6/ 7,8,9,10/ 3,5,7$36 gets 300%
1,5,10,11/ 6/ 7,8,9,10/ 3,5,7$64 gets 133.33%
Quaddie(s) - $100 EARLY Quads & $130 DECOQuads
9/ 2/ 8/ 10$14 gets 1000%
9/ 2/ 8/ 1,6,9$15 gets 500%
9/ 2/ 4,5,9,10/ 10$20 gets 500%
9/ 1,6/ 8/ 10$6 gets 300%
8,10,11/ 2/ 8/ 10$6 gets 200%
9/ 2/ 4,5,9,10/ 1,6,9$30 gets 250%
9/ 1,6/ 8/ 1,6,9$9 gets 150%
9/ 1,6/ 4,5,9,10/ 10$9 gets 150%
8,10,11/ 2/ 8/ 1,6,9$9 gets 100%
8,10,11/ 2/ 4,5,9,10/ 10$12 gets 100%

*Prices are indicative and subject to change. Visit tab.com.au to see latest prices
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