Jason Bonnington's Preview for Ararat

Fri, 22 Feb 2019

At first glance I was skeptical as to how we'd make money from tonight's Ararat Cup card but the more I delved into the from the more confident I've become and after more than doubling our cash at Terang last Saturday night it feels as though we're on track for another Country cup card success. Plainly put, three of tonight's 10 races virtually pick themselves as perfect exotic betting events so they will be played through quite heavily as will the major Quad while we'll also target two Best Bets and a value option.

Track information

Circumference: 810.9m, Sprint Lane: Yes, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Kerryn Manning, Leading Driver: Jason Lee

The Moral

Race 4 - No. 5 Yankee Lincoln

It actually shocks me that you can get $1.20 about this former Kiwi as he's an absolute $1.04 chance here tonight.


Take On

Race 7 - No. 2 Lookofalegend

This fellow has been heavily backed in the feature event but i reckon his lack of gate speed over the middle trip at this circuit will make life very hard.

Jason Bonnington Tips - All Races


Suggested Bet LIFTNTORQUE (11) To Win
OVERVIEW: LIFTNTORQUE (11) has long carried the unfair reputation for being a flat track bully who needs front line draws to run serious time but he confirmed the folly of that theory with an arrogant breeze-bound win in the fastest and strongest of three qualifiers for this race. Not only has he rated 1:55 or quicker three times when none of his rivals have ever matched that mark but he follows out a quick beginner and should be on the premises here so early that the race in virtually in his keeping. The only threat, and it would take a lot for there to be any threat, would be friendly fire in the form of stablemate FRANKINCENSE (9). She has had talent right throughout her career and was dominant from the front end in the second best heat for this series but she has worked in transit and run big races before so even without fortune here she’s a clear second pick with SAHARA TIGER (4), NATS A CHRISTIAN (1) and BYALLA BOY (8) the other must-includes for wider exotic investments.

EARLY SPEED: 3,6 + 4

RATINGS: 11/ 9/ 4/ 1/ 8/ 3/ 2/ 6/ 10/ 5


Suggested Bet NEEDABACARDI (3) Each Way
OVERVIEW: There is one stronger trotting race on this evening’s programme but for excitement this wonderfully deep and powerful T3 or better affair may well have it covered. Essentially there are three key winning chances then handful of knockout hopes and at a touch of value NEEDABACARDI (3) might well be the one. A former rogue he is flying at the minute and given he’s gone as well or perhaps better than one of his major rivals MAJESTIC PLAYER (10) at their past two meetings means he must be in this race right up to his ears. Despite having led just twice in his 28-start career he also looks a chance of finding the top and if he did just that he’d be the one to beat for sure. The most obvious threat to our top tip here is former Kiwi MCLOVIN (9) who made a huge impression on his Aussie debut winning the SA Trotters Cup then franked that form by claiming the Terang Trotters Cup – albeit it slightly less impressively last Saturday night. He may blow these away but this is a stiff test because he not only deals with NEEDABACARDI (3) but also MAJSETIC PLAYER (10) who is on his way to being the second best trotter in Anton Golino’s barn behind only Dance Craze. The race doesn’t totally end there given the quality of runners like CLAUDYS PRINCE (7), ENFORCE THE LAW (2) and KYVALLEY BARNEY (12) but one would hope the winner will come from among our top three tips.

EARLY SPEED: 3,5,7 + 2,4,6

RATINGS: 3/ 9/ 10/ 6/ 2/ 12/ 7/ 4/ 8/ 5/ 11/ 1


Suggested Bet AMELIA ROSE (2) To Win
OVERVIEW: There are bluebloods everywhere in this quality juvenile fillies’ affair but finding the winner will be no easy task. On face value it’s very easy to fall back on AMELIA ROSE (2) here given she race very well in the Premiere on debut beating home the Leeton Breeders Plate winner and it’s expected she’ll show a lot more early toe tonight than she did first up but her stablemate JEMSTONE (11) had trialled nicely before her debut and she looked good winning in slick splits so even from the horror alley she must be a threat. A strong argument can be made that SUMMERTIME (10) went even better than JEMSTONE (11) in the race referenced above so make sure you pay her respect and also watch markets with the third Emma Stewart runner LIGHTNING LANA (5) a Pet Rock filly on debut who trialled well despite being beaten at this course 11 days ago.

EARLY SPEED: 2,3,5?,7?

RATINGS: 2/ 11/ 10/ 5/ 3/ 7/ 9/ 6/ 1


Suggested Bet MISTER OHANZEE (4) To Win
OVERVIEW: The fast class affair of the evening has more whiskers on it than a leopard with one gun mare resuming, one mercurial performer returning from Sydney to complement a quartet of solid, fit, local performers so tread with caution where you can. Ultimately it would appear a similar class race over a shorter trip staged here last weekend will be the key form reference which featured our top two tips tonight in MISTER OHANZEE (4) and RISHI (5). At the end of the day they performed similarly well in that affair but with the slightly better draw tonight and the very real chance he may bully on and take the front MISTER OHANZEE (4) rates on top with RISHI (5) his biggest obvious threat. LOOKS LIKE HEAVEN (3) is the hardest horse to assess as she was racing at a really high level last prep but hasn’t been seen for 12 months and finished last in a recent Terang trial. Despite that she warrants third billing with VINNY CHASE (2) the other small winning chance though one would feel he’s need favours both at the start and in the run to succeed.

EARLY SPEED: 2,4,6? + 1,3,5

RATINGS: 4/ 5/ 3/ 2/ 1/ 6


Suggested Bet Bundle Bet on 5 & 6
OVERVIEW: When looking at the first leg of tonight’s Quad four words come to mind; oh my giddy aunt. Plainly put there is no structure or certainty to any aspect of this event with at least half a dozen potential speed maps at play so it’s best to simply focus on the horses here flying. And there are a few. The runner here who is catching the eye at the highest level is ROYAL HUSTLER (6). He has been close up behind Maraetai and Intrusive – two horse who would start short odds here – at his last couple so he narrowly gets the nod tonight clear of BETTOR BE THE BOMB (5) who is racing out his skin at the moment and AUGUSTUS JACK (7) who is loving life as a one-run sit sprinter. The winner will probably come from that trio though OZZIE BOGAN (3) can give cheek, particularly if he leads while DANMAN (8) just needs fortune from the alley and COURAGEOUS SAINT (10) has plenty of ability but resumes here from a nasty gate.

EARLY SPEED: 1,3,4+ 7?

RATINGS: 6/ 5/ 7/ 3/ 8/ 10/ 4/ 9/ 2/ 1


Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 9,10/ 3,4,5,8,9,10 ($30 gets 300%)
OVERVIEW: Those wanting to find reasons to pot megastar squaregaiter TORNADO VALLEY (11) in tonight’s feature trot have three factors they can hang their hats upon. The first is that he’s returning from a minor setback, the second is that he’s never drawn worse than gate 8 from the mobile start since immigrating to Australia and the third is that his only two losses in his past 21 starts were when parked in transit which he may well be tonight. Now that nonsense is out of the way we’re clearly tipping him on top. In fact if he whips around to lead with a lap to run he can’t be beaten and even if he doesn’t the only horse who could challenge him here is RED HOT TOOTH (10) who is racing in really great heart and may cause some consternation if she stays in front of the fave early and herself then whips around to take up the running. The race gets slightly trickier from there though DELTASUN (9) must be respected courtesy of his progressive nature and there are a few off the front lien in FABRICATION (5), FATHER CHRISTMAS (3) and KHEIRON (4) who won’t be far away if they get the favours in transit.

EARLY SPEED: 4,5 + 3,7

RATINGS: 11/ 10/ 9/ 5/ 3/ 4/ 8/ 7/ 6/ 12/ 2/ 1


Suggested Bet PISTOL ABBEY (2) To Win
OVERVIEW: This may not be the strongest Ian Daff Memorial in history but it’s a stunning little race nonetheless with two serious winning chances and a blowout hope out wide. The best form reference for this race is clearly an M0 to M1 staged at this circuit six weeks ago where IMPRINCESSGEMMA (5) led in transit and just staved off the advances of Beach Garden and also PISTOL ABBEY (2) who parked out in the run. IMPRINCESSGEMMA (5) led form gate one that night but she’s likely to find the front again here and while she’ll give one hell of a sight the fact that PISTOL ABBEY (2) got so close to her last time and may find herself in a better position her means the pendulum swings wildly in her favour and she’s the clear top selection from IMPRINCESSGEMMA (5) her only serious threat. The blowout reference above is RECIPROCITY (7). She has blazing gate speed when on song but couldn’t cross a slower front line than this last weekend and if she doesn’t lead she simply cannot win. Warrior Queen HOLLYS MISS MOLLY (4) has been at this level and rates and fourth pick but almost no hope of causing an upset while JULIUTIGRES (1) may get a Guernsey on the third and fourth line of wider exotics purely due to the polemarking draw.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Potential Leader) + 7 + 1,2,3

RATINGS: 2/ 5/ 7/ 4/ 1/ 3/ 6


Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,5,8 ($30 gets 250%)
OVERVIEW: Yet another race here with a small but spectacular little field featuring four very progressive customers, three of whom can win with the way the draws have fallen. The best of those chances might be CODE BAILEY (8). A beautiful big horse who was twice placed at Derby level last season he returns here for his first run in five months and after trialling very nicely at Beckley Park a fortnight or so back he’s incredibly hard to ignore fresh up tonight. The critical obstacle for him is that he’s not really a sprint lane horse and his best option here is to follow through along the pegs early on which is why he’ll face stiff opposition from the incredibly smart SIRLETIC (2) who has open class potential and has never been beaten over the short and KASBAH KID (1) who is improving at a rapid rate and will have every available option form the polemarking draw. The only blowout option is FRANCO TRISTAN (5) though he’s need everything to go right from his sticky gate to challenge.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Potential Leader) + 3,6,7

RATINGS: 8/ 2/ 1/ 5/ 3/ 7/ 6/ 4


Suggested Bet SUCCESS COUNTS (8) Each Way
OVERVIEW: The penultimate event is a difficult one to approach given the fact THE GREAT REDEEMER (13) has the most talent of any runner engaged but his manners make it tough to trust him on any level at all. For that reason his stablemate SUCCESS COUNTS (8) appeals as a better betting proposition despite going way too bad to be true last start and having to deal with a tricky gate eight draw. If you can get your head around those obstacles his prior form was exemplary and he’ll be in this up to his ears with any fortune at all as will CHRISKEN KIOSK (11) and also ON FAST FORWARD (7) who looks like he’s drawn poorly tonight but actually he has a huge advantage over his main threats given he’ll encounter no traffic issues and can bully forward soon after the start.

EARLY SPEED: 1,2 + 5,7

RATINGS: 8/ 13/ 11/ 7/ 1/ 4/ 12/ 2/ 5/ 9/ 10/ 3


Suggested Bet TOPSIES DELIGHT (5) Each Way
OVERVIEW: Early markets would indicate there’s very little love for TOPSIES DELIGHT (5) in tonight’s final affair and it must be conceded that he tackled the weaker of two heats for this series but as the likely leader here he’s the one they need to beat. NIKITARAS (9) was arrogant winning the faster and stronger qualifier for this series but he led on that occasion and will find this tougher from the difficult draw while BARRANJOEY (11) who should just keep progressing forward from his horror alley and DIAMOND CULLEN (3) who has talent but was ordinary in her heat for this series are the other must-includes for all exotic wagers.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Likely Leader) + 1,3

RATINGS: 5/ 9/ 11/ 3/ 8/ 6/ 1/ 4/ 2

*Prices are indicative and subject to change. Visit tab.com.au to see latest prices
Stay in control. Gamble responsibly. If Gambling is a problem for you call Gambler’s Help 1800 858 858 or visit Responsible Gambling