Jason Bonnington's Preview for Shepparton

Fri, 21 Sep 2018

If you love competitive racing then you'll be thrilled by tonight's Shepparton card which proves above and beyond all else that if you have a thriving horse population even racing generally takes care of itself. Most of what we're doing tonight has an element of risk apart from the Quads (early and Standard) which may look convoluted but are still the best way to invest in tonight's 10-race card.

Track information

TOP 5
Circumference: 1000m, Sprint Lane: Yes, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Laura Crossland, Leading Driver: Chris Alford


The Moral

Race 10 - No. 4 Popcorn Sutton

It's never easy declaring trotters but this one should just lead and win.

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Take On

Race 9 - No. 5 Augustus Jack

This is a race of many winning chances and i suspect the above pacer has come up much shorter than he should.




Jason Bonnington Tips - All Races

R1

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Selections JIMMY LOCKE (10), BELTANE (9), MANUELA (5), BAD INFLUENCE (8)
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 5,9,10/ 5,9,10/ 3,5,8,9,10,11 ($30 gets 125%)
OVERVIEW: You’d be hard pressed to find a more competitive night of racing in any code, anywhere than the one we have this evening and the opening event on the programme sets the tone for that theme with three truly legitimate winning chances. The best of that trio, perhaps clearly, is JIMMY LOCKE (10). He has displayed above average ability right from his formative days but it has only been of very recent times that the penny may finally have dropped and it’s his last start triumph when making up super meterage in a fast final half rather than dictating for the top end which most recommends him here from the second row alley. His major danger will probably come in the form of an old mate named BELTANE (9). An ex-stablemate of our top tip he’s also racing in super heart at the minute and is versatile enough to overcome the poor draw as well though little separates him and his conqueror from two starts back MANUELA (5) who may lack the reputation of his two chief threats but with the lead likely to be his and the gilt-edged services of Greg Sugars he should definitely not be overlooked. It would be an almighty shock if the winner came from outside that top trio through BAD INFLUENCE (8), LIBERTY TEE JAY (11) and HARRYS DELIGHT (3) can all be included on wider exotic investments.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Potential Leader) + 1,3

RATINGS: 10/ 9/ 5/ 8/ 11/ 3/ 6/ 2/ 1/ 4

R2

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Selections MOYTURA (10), ELIANNA FRANCO (8), ROCKIN IN MEMPHIS (11), MAKEN ART MAGIC (12)
Suggested Bet Flexi Exacta: 8,10/ 3,5,8,10,11,12 9$30 gets 300%)
OVERVIEW: The stronger and faster of two qualifiers for this C1-only final was fought out between MOYTURA (10) and ELIANNO FRANCO (8) twelve days back and if seeing is believing then MOYTURA (10) rates as the testing material tonight. It’s fair to say most hearts still bleed for those who backed ELIANNA FRANCO (8) in that event as she appeared the class runner and after finding the front it appeared margin was the only issue. Sadly for those investors MOYTURA (10) improved out of this world in that race when parking out in a very slick final 1200m and simply worrying the hot-pot out of success in the concluding stages. Crucially MOYTURA (10) also has the barrier draw advantage as he’ll be poking forward while ELIANNA FRANCO (8) is restraining off the pegs. That being said ELIANNA FRANCO (8) has produced multiple quality performances while MOYTURA (10) has only delivered one so she remains the safer investment and the likely favourite. You would imagine one of the two referenced runners will salute but the other heat winner ROCKIN IN MEMPHIS (11) has been super in all three runs this prep and can cause the minor upset if the tempo’s hot enough in transit. A number of other horses here also impressed in their qualifiers such as MAKEN ART MAGIC (12) and REBECCAS COPY (3) but it’s still tough to see how either would find a way to win.

EARLY SPEED: 1,3,5,7

RATINGS: 10/ 8/ 11/ 12/ 3/ 5/ 9/ 2/ 1/ 6/ 7/ 13

R3

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Selections HEADLINE ACT (2), GORDON GIRL (1), MAJOR MUCHA (7), KAYBEE STARZZZ (8)
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 1,2,7/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,4,7,8,9,10 ($30 gets 100%)
OVERVIEW: On a night filled to the brim with brutally tough races this is one of the cruellest with such little exposed form to work with and horses who can improve sharply from run to run. That means we are forced to play on instinct to some degree and in that vein we’re flying with HEADLINE ACT (2). A Sportswriter debutante with Jason Ross she arrogantly claimed a trial here from the head of affair recently before franking that effort with another trial success at Cobram subsequent to that. Crucially she has also shown gate speed at the preliminaries and if she lobs the top she may get things her own way. The major danger her is another debutante, the daughter of Western Terror GORDON GIRL (1). The first big tick in her favour is that she’s trained by David Moran who has a ripper training record and the fact she’s drawn the pole tonight. The major issue for our top tip is the fact that GORDON GIRL (1) might have more gate speed than she showed in her recent trial but whether she leads or trails she must warrant respect. MAJOR MUCHA (7) who twice rattled late off soft trips before failing when driven tougher in a heat of the Home Grown series looks clearly the pick of the raced brigade though she may revert to more conservative tactics here while outside Each Way chances also go to KAYBEE STARZZZ (8), MADAME ANNIE (9) and SIEDRA CALEB (10).

EARLY SPEED: 2 (On Trial)

RATINGS: 2/ 1/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 4/ 6/ 5/ 3

R4

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Selections TRAVLININSTYLE (2), EMIJAY (4), JADE THERESE (3), FAST IS BETTOR (5)
Suggested Bet TRAVLININSTYLE (2) To Win
OVERVIEW: The opening three events have basically boiled down to three genuine chances apiece and that theme continues here with a trio of serious winning hopes. With race fitness and white hot form on her side the best of those chances is TRVLININSTYLE (2). She was battling around the edges a little before dropping in grade and bashing her rivals at Echuca then leading and trailing her way to success at Cobram 10 days later. She’ll cross to the top in a bound here and have options once she does which will also give a minor edge over chief threats EMIJAY (4) and JADE THERESE (3). EMIJAY (4) has only had three career outings but her SP profile and win two starts back would both suggest she’ll be winning plenty of races as will JADE THERESE (3) who has obviously had problems but showed she’s come back in fine order with a super first up effort of an 18 month break. Those drawn poorly here look to have little or no chance and the only other runners really required for multiple wagers are FAST IS BETTOR (5), SHECANDOIT (7) and perhaps ARTIZZ (1) who could ass major value to exotics from her ideal, economical gate.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Fastest Beginner) + 3,4,7

RATINGS: 2/ 4/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 1/ 6/ 9/ 11/ 8

R5

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Selections ITS BACK IN THE DAY (3), BETTOR OPS (6), BETTOR DOWNUNDER (7), JILLIBY DREAMTIME (4)
Suggested Bet JILLIBY DREAMTIME (4) To Place
OVERVIEW: The fast class of the night is an absolute rip-hot-boiler where tactics and talent will play almost equal roles in who secures the chocolates. Having said that the horse who rates on top may be the one at a tactical disadvantage and his name is ITS BACK IN THE DAY (3), A winner of five from seven this bloke was on notice right from his Northern Region Championship successes but what he did last start when duelling with future open class performer Diamonds N Cash in a 54.4-sec final half took our estimation of him to another level. The issue he’s got here is that early, natural speed is not quite yet his thing and if JILLIBY DREAMTIME (4) pings across early then hands over to BETTOR OPS (6) here life becomes very hard. That’s because BETTOR OPS (6) is a quality performer in his own right who was good enough to beat open class guns like Tee Cee Bee Macray and Burnaholeinmypocket last time out. The race doesn’t end there either with BETTOR DOWNUNDER (7) possessing all the class to drill these into submission at her first run back in Vic and RESURGENT SPIRIT (9) also capable of featuring with the right trip in transit. If you’re looking to back one straight out the drum also take not of our earlier map given JILLIBY DREAMTIME (4) will run a cheeky race if she leads then trails tonight.

EARLY SPEED: 4,6 + 3,7

RATINGS: 3/ 6/ 7/ 4/ 9/ 1/ 2/ 8/ 5

R6

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Selections TRENDY BROMAC (12), ALBAROCK (6), MISTA LOMBO (5), SHE KEEPS COMING (9)
Suggested Bet TRENDY BROMAC (12) Each Way
OVERVIEW: The puzzles only get harder as we delve further into the Quad here with this race having seven serious hopes. TRENDY BROMAC (12) has proven less trustworthy than Harvey Weinstein through much of her Aussie adventure to date but she is very classy when right and her recent trial here was more than encouraging enough to suggest she can swamp these if the speed is anything other than dawdling. On pure class the major threat would be ALBAROCK (6) who has promised to be a very smart horse many time over her short career despite only boasting three wins while from tactical perspective MISTA LOMBO (5) might be most advantaged given he has a rare opportunity to challenge for the front. As previously mentioned however it is a minefield race where SHE KEEPS COMING (9) who beat Trendy Bromac home in both the Breeders Crown final for 4YO Mares and a recent trial warrants respect along with SHAWAMI LASS (10), FRANKS VERY MUCH (8) and MISTER ZHIVAGO (4).

EARLY SPEED: 2,3,5,7?

RATINGS: 12/ 6/ 5/ 9/ 10/ 8/ 4

R7

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Selections IMAMENACE (8), FATOUCHE (9), ROSEHILL MAGIC (7), THE PAIGEBOY (1)
Suggested Bet IMAMENACE (8) To Win
OVERVIEW: Mapping races from the stand is much tougher than from the mobile but the way IMAMENACE (8) has been beginning of late he should spear to the front from his 10m handicap and if that takes place then this Standardbred giraffe will be freakishly difficult to beat on all his recent form. While she’s a much less reliable commodity FATOUCHE (9) probably rates as the major obstacle on her best form just clear of ROSEHILL MAGIC (7) who is tough and versatile and almost never underperforms. Despite winning at monster odds last start it would be unwise to totally dismiss THE PAIGEBOY (1) either given his propensity to start well from the tapes while STARLIGHT STORM (10) would also be in it with a lightning beginning from his 40m impost tonight.

EARLY SPEED: 8 (Fastest Beginner) + 1,3,5,10

RATINGS: 8/ 9/ 7/ 1/ 10/ 5/ 6/ 4/ 2/ 3

R8

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Selections RUSTY CRACKERS (2), TIME KEEPA LOMBO (8), ALE DE HUEZ (6), FOURSTARZZZSPECIAL (4)
Suggested Bet RUSTY CRACKERS (2) To Win
OVERVIEW: The only thing preventing RUSTY CRACKERS (2) from being a stone cold stinking moral here is the short course trip. Because of his leaning toward balancing up early and dropping back into difficult positions RUSTY CRACKERS (2) has yet to record a finish any better than third in eight attempts over the sprint journey but his recent efforts – particularly THAT run three starts back when making up 30 metres in a quarter – have been enormous and with only eight horses engaged here he won’t be spotting the lead pack any sort of start that he cannot overcome. Should our top tip once again struggle over the short TIME KEEPA LOMBO (8) who has been racing well of late should prove his most likely assassin though ALPE DE HUEZ (6) also has the class if he can negate what looks to be a gate speed-nullifying alley. None of the others possess the class to prevail aside from FOURSTARZZSPECIAL (4) who is not racing at his best.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Likely Leader) + 3?,4,6

RATINGS: 2/ 8/ 6/ 4/ 5/ 1/ 3/ 7

R9

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Selections PLAYING ARKABELLA (9), DRAGONTOWN (11), BULLYS DELIGHT (8), MONGIANA (2)
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 9,11/ 2,5,6,8,9,11/ 2,5,6,8,9,11 ($40 gets 100%)
OVERVIEW: In some ways this C0 only heat is one of the races of the night. Heading a list of six winning chances here is PLAYING ARKABELLA (9) who has had two starts for two impressive wins for Phillip Walters and ran through the line despite working in the breeze last start like a horse that is going places. One horse who has always been going places but hasn’t got there yet is DRAGONTOWN (11). He was not far behind Graduate winner Rackemup Tigerpie two back and on his best form he may blow these away so logically goes on the first line of all exotic wagers with our top tip while the second and third line can be filled out with BULLYS DELIGHT (8), MONGIANA (2), fast beginner ARE DOUBLEYOU (6) and AUGUSTUS JACK (5).

EARLY SPEED: 2,6 + 4,5

RATINGS: 9/ 11/ 8/ 2/ 6/ 5/ 10/ 1/ 4/ 7/ 3

R10

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Selections POPCORN SUTTON (4), ALLENS DELIGHT (1), MYSTIC CHIP (7), SOH TWISTED (6)
Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,6,7/ 1,5,6,7 ($30 gets 333.33%)
OVERVIEW: On overall class and her recent trial triumph POPCORN SUTTON (4) should simply brain his rivals here with the lesser podium positions fought out between ALLENS DELIGHT (1), MYSTIC CHIP (7), SOH TWISTED (6) and perhaps KILLORGLIN (5).

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Likely Leader) + 3,5

RATINGS: 4/ 1/ 7/ 6/ 5/ 3/ 2/ 8

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