Robert Auber's Preview for Stawell

Sun, 14 Oct 2018

Stawell has a big afternoon of harness racing with 9 races on the program with some quality horses engaged throughout the afternoon. There appears to be some dominant favourites throughout the meeting however some may be starting under the odds and could be vulnerable and the odd upset would not surprise. It looks a good betting program and value can be found throughout the race meeting.

Track information

Circumference: 810m, Sprint Lane: Yes, Leader's win: , Leading Trainer: Matthew Craven, Leading Driver: Michael Bellman

The Moral

Race 1 - No 8 Im Sir Blake

Smart horse resuming and will be hard to beat.


Take On

Race 6 - No 1 No City Chick

A last start winner with a nice draw but may start under the odds.

Jason Bonnington Tips - All Races


Suggested Bet MAD ROBBER (8) Each Way
OVERVIEW: The disappointing way MOTU GATECRASHER (1) went first up from a long break further convolutes what is an already perplexing launching pad for tonight’s Vic Cup card but with one of the nation’s best gate drivers Todd McCarthy aboard and gate one at his disposal he looks a great chance of leading and if he carries likely trail horse MAD ROBBER (8) to the lane then that fellow is the testing material following an effortless and ultra-impressive triumph last weekend when first up for training genius Emma Stewart. If the polemarker opts not to keep the top or doesn’t take MAD ROBBER (8) where he needs to go then there are two principal adversaries’ likely to take advantage. The best of those is probably STAR OF MEMPHIS (13) who blotted his copybook by galloping out at Kilmore last start but who is also, ever so quietly, developing into a future open class commodity. The other key player and one likely to sneak under the radar of bookies, is REPLACED EYE (9). He has been plying his trade with great virtue of late and was huge when close-up and luckless behind the highly rated Bettermatch in 1:50.5 at Menangle two starts back. Not many in this field would be capable of running that time. STRIKING BEAUTY (5) is next best and flying but will need fortune she’s unlikely to receive from the no-woman’s-land gate while DYNAMIC BROMAC (3) and UPANATOM (7) are others – along with the aforementioned MOTU GATECRASHER (1) – who can figure with stacks of luck, or in the case of the polemarker, dramatic second-up improvement.

EARLY SPEED: 1 (Fastest Beginner) + 2,3,6,7

RATINGS: 8/ 13/ 9/ 5/ 3/ 7/ 1/ 12/ 6/ 2/ 4/ 11


Suggested Bet PENTAL SUNRISE (1) Each Way
OVERVIEW: With the Change of Tactics rule going the way of the Dodo there is some  small doubt over whether OUR SIR OLIVER (2) will charge off the arm in the way he can tonight but if he does the lead will be his and the major beneficiary will be PENTAL SUNRISE (1). An above-average mare, she has done enough in all three runs for Ross Sugars to suggest the right draw and the right race would offer her a huge chance for success and tonight she gets both. The key for her here is the fact that she’ll almost certainly trail the leader and with few noted pressure horses among her rivals she’ll be perfectly placed when they hit top gear through the final 600m. Given she ran straight past OUR SIR OLIVER (2) last time they met and actually went much better than her sixth placing last start, it all suggests she’s arguably one of the better Each Way plays across this monster card. The key threat here is CRUZ (11) who has the horror alley but he has proven capable of being competitive over this trip after breezing in times most of these will not run in their careers. The main winning chances may end there though OUR SIR OLIVER (2) can be dangerous if he’s left totally to his own devices in front and COLONEL JOY (8) will finish with venom even if he’s three poles in transit as expected.

EARLY SPEED: 2,3 + 1,6

RATINGS: 1/ 4/ 11/ 8/ 3/ 5/ 6/ 9/ 10


Suggested Bet DAQUIRI (2) To Win
OVERVIEW: In a race of moderate early speed, this might provide yet another platform for DAQUIRI (2) to prove he’s the very nice trotter he’s always promised to be. He hit an extraordinary purple patch in the Summer of ‘17/’18 which culminated in SA Trotters’ Cup success but mixed his form after that. Tonight he finds a race where he should spear straight to the top then cop limited pressure and after an impressive trial triumph in preparation for his return there’ll be few excuses should that prediction play out. A brief examination of his rivals’ formlines paints a muddied picture given many have switched and swapped positions in various recent races but for class and courage ROCK TONIGHT (6) looms as the chief threat, particularly after his arrogant last start success. That being said cases can be made for the enigmatic but talented COURCHEVEL (3) and the very, very, very enigmatic but ultra-gifted ENROLLED (8) who has trialled well between runs though OUR TWENTYEN (7) can also feature with great fortune and MY SKYPOCKET (1) can figure if he finds his A-grade form.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Likely Leader) + 5

RATINGS: 2/ 6/ 3/ 8/ 7/ 1/ 4/ 5/ 9


Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,8/ 2,4,5,7,8,9 ($30 gets 300%)
OVERVIEW: The start will cause some consternation for his supporters given he’ll likely be crossed in a bound but with the Master of Puppets Chris Alford aboard MARVELLOUS MAX (1) should be in clear air after 100m and the race should be over from there. The reason for my confidence is the fact that this Brent Lilley recruit has always had fantastic talent and the way he went first-up a fortnight back would suggest he has gone to a freakish new level; a level which none of his rivals here could match. Perhaps the best advertisement for our top tip’s winning credentials is the fact his major rival here without doubt or question is VARIANCE (8) who continues to race extremely well but who was treated with some contempt by MARVELLOUS MAX (1) 14 days ago. It would create one of those very special pains in the centre of the temple if anything else prevailed here though the other must-include for multiple wagers is SHARED INTEREST (2) who can’t seem to win one of these races this campaign but who should lead after 50m then hand up that ascendancy when the hot-pop comes a-knockin’. There is a relatively big gap between those top three and the peloton which includes FATOUCHE (5), FEAR NOT (9), YANKEE COMMANDO (7) and also IMAHE MAN (4).

EARLY SPEED: 2,3 + 1 (Mid-race move)

RATINGS: 1/ 8/ 2/ 5/ 9/ 7/ 4/ 6/ 3


Suggested Bet MAKES EVERY SCENTS (5) Each Way
OVERVIEW: While the Victoria Cup is clearly and obviously the highlight of tonight’s awesome programme this FFA ‘conso’ is a stone-cold-cracker in its very own right. Simply put, if you’ve been following one here over the past few months just stick fat. If you want to play some angles however the map looks likely to see SOLARSONIC (4) ping across and find the top before potentially relenting to MAKES EVERY SCENTS (5) just as he did last weekend. On that occasion after working to the top, this much improved Aiken-trained mare defied the expectations of this analyst by running her rivals into the ground. No doubt this is another step up from that assignnment but if she did find the front and enjoyed a breather at any stage she’d be super tough to topple at a very generous price. That being said the list of dangers is long and foreboding. Heading that list are Kilmore Cup placegetters THREE WAYS (11) (The Vic Cup emerg) and also BAD BILLY (9) who will both thrive if they run a sub 44-sec Lead Time as may well be the case. The likely favourite MOTU METEOR (3) also has winning claims but he didn’t set the world on fire prevailing first-up last weekend and if he’s forced to race tough, which looks likely, he’ll be climbing Everest tonight. The other major chances are poorly drawn but in-form pair LOVE INA CHEVY (7) and AUDI HARE (8) though RESURGENT SPIRIT (1) can be dangerous if he leads or trails and CASH N FLOW (10) has more than enough ability if he finds his very best form.

EARLY SPEED: 4,5 + 1,3,7

RATINGS: 5/ 11/ 9/ 3/ 7/ 8/ 1/ 6/ 10/ 2/ 4/ 12


Suggested Bet Flexi Exacta: 3/ 4,8,10 ($30 gets 1000%)
OVERVIEW: Every which way you look at tonight’s Bill Collins Sprint – one of Australia’s greatest short-course squaregaiting tests – TORNADO VALLEY (3) looks a near lock. A brilliant beginner on his night who most would rate as the nation’s pre-eminent trotter in work, he appears near certain to assume the lead within 200m and given he’s five-for-five when leading on Aussie soil and has trialled brilliantly for his return, this race is on his racquet lest something extraordinary happens in the formative furlong. Despite the appearance of some promising future stars here the major threat, if any, is established topliner KYVALLEY BLUR (10). Not only does he possess the biggest sprint of any runner engaged here he also looks likely to receive a peachy trail in from teak tough stablemate FATHER CHRISTMAS (9) which would leave him in the strike zone with 400m to travel. The future heroes referenced above, who also have small chances here, are DANCE CRAZE (8) who should receive her preferred economical trip and will explode late if opportunity knocks, and MAORI LAW (4) who may be as good as anything here in 12 months but is being asked to do something extraordinary for one so inexperienced in a race where he’ll be working all the way. Honourable mentions also go to TOUGH MONARCH (11) who is up to these for talent but won’t love the distance or the ODM draw and RED HOT TOOTH (7) who was good first-up but simply cannot overcome the extreme front line alley.

EARLY SPEED: 3 (Likely Leader) + 1,5,7

RATINGS: 3/ 10/ 8/ 4/ 11/ 7/ 1/ 6/ 9/ 5


Suggested Bet WRAPPERS DELIGHT (7) (1 x 3)
OVERVIEW: There has been plenty of conjecture about the loss of some iconic legends over the last few months but we still have an incredibly mouth-watering Pryde’s EasiFeed Victoria Cup on our hands here with a stack of potential winners and even more potential in-transit scenarios. On Tuesday afternoon when gates were drawn for this Grand Circuit classic and CHICAGO BULL (3) landed barrier three, a collective moan was heard across all other states outside WA but on closer examination it isn’t the Valhalla that it appeared at first glance. Given mini-Quinny looks to have near no chance of finding the front from there, he’ll likely settle in the running line early then either be forced to work forward and park or accept the reality that he could be flushed out to lead the three-wide line a long way from the finish. Despite this, Gary Hall Snr’s speed machine is so strong, so fast and so established at the top level that he all but picks himself regardless of the obstacles that he faces along the journey. Amazingly, despite the second row draw, his chief danger is almost certainly SHADOW SAX (9) and there are several reasons why. The most obvious of those is his phenomenal talent but with Australia’s number one reinsman Chris Alford aboard there also appears every chance he’ll follow through and lob the little Bull’s back in transit and as a result he’ll dictate when the Best from the West is forced to move as he’ll likely flush three wide cover from that fellow when he makes his own deep-track move. Despite the horror alley WRAPPERS DELIGHT (7) looms as the next best hope given he’s become a killing machine in recent months and his limit is not yet established but from a speed map perspective the other major player is MACH DORO (5) who looks more than capable of crossing everything early then handing up to whoever he wants courtesy of his elite early speed and the fact one of Australia’s greatest drivers Luke McCarthy takes the rains. TIGER TARA (2) will also have his fans but there must be huge doubt about whether he’s at the peak he’d need to be at to win a Vic Cup, even if he finds the front. If you’re looking for one at monstrous odds then AMERETTO (13) fits the bill given her exceptional stamina and will to succeed if they happen to run a 2012-style lead time at the top end tonight.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Fastest Beginner) + 1,2,4

RATINGS: 3/ 9/ 7/ 5/ 2/ 12/ 10/ 8/ 6/ 11/ 1/ 4


Suggested Bet HEREHECOMES (8) Each Way
OVERVIEW: Yet another outstanding race here, this time for the aspirational metro maidens where the extreme level of front line gate speed, particularly from numbers one, two and three creates an intriguing environment, particularly given that we’re not completely sure how SOMEROCKSOMEROLL (1) will play things after the start, Despite not being the flat-out-fastest starter the polemarker mentioned above has proven she can muster well enough to hold some brilliant beginners after the start, which she did when pacing a mind-boggling 25.9-sec opening cut first-up from a break. If she does lead but is forced to resist serious pressure in the formative 400m then HEREHECOMES (8) should lob the trail and the way he’s gone at his past two starts he would be the one to beat. If SOMEROCKSOMEROLL (1) gets crossed however, or is forced to work like a Thai Cave rescuer early on then SOFALA (13) who is less mature and less tractable than Lindsay Lohan may simply boss this field if he’s in the mood to behave. The other key runners are MACEY JAYDE (2) who produced an extraordinary performance when working all the way through a 56.1-sec middle half last start and the previously mentioned SOMEROCKSOMEROLL (1) who can certainly win here if one or two early rivals stay out of the early burn and she gets a milder Lead Time than many expect.


RATINGS: 8/ 13/ 2/ 1/ 4/ 11/ 6/ 3/ 5/ 10/ 9/ 12


Suggested Bet Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 2/ 7,8,9 ($30 gets 1000%)
OVERVIEW: We quickly transition from a race with amazing front line gate speed to one where Claiming Grade President WITH GUSTO (4) should burst to the top with little or no resistance. It’s probably fair to say the he was down on his standard rating last start but if he gets the soda he looks certain to secure in front and is beaten, then it will be a clear sign he’s looking for a break. If that fellow does as expected and SKIPPY RASCAL (2) trails him in transit then he’s the obvious threat and likely silver medallist though one must always be wary of Claiming newcomers and for that reason SULTAN FELLA (9) and INTRANSIT (8) warrant respect along with CLASSY WESTERN (7) who was back to his best last start but looks somewhat cast over the unfavourable 1720m trip from the nightmare alley.

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Likely Leader) + 2,3

RATINGS: 4/ 2/ 9/ 8/ 7/ 5/ 6/ 3/ 1


Suggested Bet LA GRANGE (10) To Win
OVERVIEW: This is a crazy good trot for the emerging squaregaiters where LA GRANGE (10) gets the nod courtesy of his class, experience and speed but the way MAJESTIC PRIDE (11) went last start only an imbecile would suggest she can’t win and the same can be said for likely leader KYVALLEY TINMAN (4), in-the-zone pair DYNAMIC LEGACY (9) and ALDEBARAN PRINCE (3) and also a horse who has promised everything but hasn’t quite yet fulfilled his potential in DARK SECRET (3).

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Likely Leader) + 1,3,7

RATINGS: 10/ 11/ 4/ 9/ 8/ 3/ 6/ 7/ 2/ 1


Suggested Bet TRAVLININSTYLE (5) To Win
OVERVIEW: The start will be crucial here but if you believe that FONG NIEN (2) will rapidly cross then hand the front to fellow fast-starter TRAVLININSTYLE (5) then the latter horse looks a super chance to lead them all the way. FONG NIEN (2) has proven more than proficient at delivering from the trail so if she takes that option she’s in this up to her ears while the only other two winning hopes are ARTISTIC SAINT (12) who will be much better suited back to a bigger track and AUGUSTUS JACK (10) who is very strong but yet to replicate the awesomeness of his first-up triumph this campaign.

EARLY SPEED: 2,5 + 4

RATINGS: 5/ 2/ 12/ 10/ 4/ 8/ 9/ 7/ 3/ 6/ 1/ 11

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